Professional Documents
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A Fast Briefing on Trends and Patternsand Their Implications for Our Collective Future
March, 2012
2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST
1. Land of Opportunity:
Work hard, and you can become anything you want to be.
2. Generational Advancement:
Through hard work and sacrifice, each generation of parents will be able to assure a better lifeand better educationfor their children.
Over past 30 years, earnings among the lowest income families have declinedwhile biggest increases have occurred at the top
80% Percent Growth Mean Family Income Constant Dollars, 1980-2010 60%
78%
14%
Third 20% Fourth 20% Top 20% Top 5%
0%
-20%
Source: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2011 (New York: College Board, 2010), Figure 16A.
United States
Gini coefficient
Note: Gini coefficient ranges from 0 to 1, where 0 indicates total income equality and 1 indicates total income inequality Source: United Nations, UNdata, http://data.un.org/DocumentData.aspx?q=gini&id=230
Chile Mexico Turkey United States Israel Portugal New Zealand Italy United Kingdom Estonia Australia Poland Spain Ireland Greece Switzerland Belgium France Canada Korea (Republic of) Slovenia Netherlands Hungary Austria Germany Finland Norway Czech Republic Slovakia Sweden Japan Denmark
2011 THE EDUCATION TRUST 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST
US intergenerational mobility was increasing until 1980, and has sharply declined since
0.6 Earnings Elasticity
The falling elasticity meant increased economic mobility until 1980. Since then, the elasticity has risen and mobility has slowed
0.35
0.34
0.33
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Source: Aaronson and Mazumder. Intergenerational Economic Mobility in the U.S.. 1940-2000. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago WP 2005-12: Dec. 2005.
0.47
0.41 0.32
0.27
0.19
Canada
0.18
Finland
0.17
Norway
0.15
Denmark
0
United Kingdom United States France Germany Sweden
Source: Hertz, Tom. Understanding Mobility in America. Center for American Progress: 2006.
At macro level, better and more equal education is not the only answer.
But at the individual level, it really is.
African American
Latino
White 2008
1971* 1975* 1980* 1984* 1988* 1990* 1992* 1994* 1996* 1999* 2004
*Denotes previous assessment format
Source: NAEP 2008 Trends in Academic Progress, NCES
African American
Latino 2004
White 2008
8th Grade Reading: Recent Gap Narrowing for Blacks, Less for Latinos
13 Year Olds NAEP Reading
300
290
280
African American
Latino
White 2008
1971* 1975* 1980* 1984* 1988* 1990* 1992* 1994* 1996* 1999* 2004
*Denotes previous assessment format
Source: NAEP 2008 Trends in Academic Progress, NCES
8th Grade Math: Progress for All Groups, Some Gap Narrowing
13 Year Olds NAEP Math
300
290 280
African American
Latino
White
2004
2008
289
285
285
1984
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1999
2004
2008
304
300
298
302
305
307
306
307
308
305
306
2004
2008
African American
Latino
White 2008
1971* 1975* 1980* 1984* 1988* 1990* 1992* 1994* 1996* 1999* 2004
*Denotes previous assessment format
Source: NAEP 2008 Trends in Academic Progress, NCES
African American
Latino
White
2004
2008
Source:
Source:
Source:
White Applicants
16%
Black Applicants
39%
Hispanic Applicants
29%
Asian Applicants
Source:
25%
And no matter how you cut the data, our students arent doing well compared to their peers in other countries.
U.S.A.
500
450
400
350
300
550
500
450
400
350
550
OECD
U.S.A.
500
450
400
350
500
450
400
350
300
U.S. Ranks Low in the Percent of Students in the Highest Achievement Level (Level 6) in Math
10
Percent of Students
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data available at 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST http://www.oecd.org/
U.S. Ranks 23rd out of 29 OECD Countries in the Math Achievement of the HighestPerforming Students*
700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 Average Scale Score
* Students at the 95th Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data available at Percentile
http://www.oecd.org/
U.S. Ranks 23rd out of 29 OECD Countries in the Math Achievement of High-SES Students
600 550 Average Scale Score 500 450 400 350 300
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data available at http://www.oecd.org/ 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST
U.S.A.
450
400
350
300
Percent of Students
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
0.0%
U.S.A.
Immigrants? The U.S.A. does have a larger percentage of immigrants and children of immigrants than most OECD countries
Lu xem Sw bo u itze rg rl Au a nd s Ne w Z tral ia ea la Ca nd Un it e na da dS t Ge ates rm a Be ny l giu Au m str Fra ia Ne th e nce rla OE Sw nds C e Un D Av de n e it e d K ra ge i ng d De om nm a Gr rk ee ce Sp a No in rw Po ay rt u g Ire al lan d Ita M ly Cz e c exi c hR o ep u Ice b la n d Hu ng a Fi n ry lan Slo Tu d vak rkey Re pu Ja b pa Po n l an d
But ranks 21st out of 30 OECD countries when only taking into account native student* scores
PISA 2006 Science
600
550
U.S.A.
500
450
400
350
300
*Students born in the country of assessment with at least one parent born in the same country Source: OECD, PISA 2006 Results, table 4.2c, http://www.oecd.org/
550
U.S.A.
500
450
400
350
We used to make up for at least some of this by sending more of our students on to college.
Inequality.
PISA 2003: Gaps in Performance Of U.S.15 Year-Olds Are Among the Largest of OECD Countries
Rank in Performance Gaps Between Highest and Lowest Achieving Students * 8th 6th
95th percentiles.
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data available at http://www.oecd.org/ 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Among OECD Countries, U.S.A. has the 4th Largest Gap Between High-SES and Low-SES Students
2006 PISA - Science
600
U.S.A.
550
500
450
400
350
Among OECD Countries, U.S.A. has the 5th Largest Gap Between High-SES and Low-SES Students
2009 PISA Reading
600
U.S.A.
OECD
500
450
400
350
High Poverty vs. Low Poverty Districts High Minority vs. Low Minority Districts
Source: Education Trust analyses based on U.S. Department of Education and U.S. Census Bureau data for the 2005-06 school year.
Even at the higher education level, we spend less per student in the institutions where most low-income students start.
Expenditures per student 2 Year Colleges $9,183
4 Year Colleges
$27,973
Students in Poor Schools Receive As for Work That Would Earn Cs in Affluent Schools
100 87
Percentile - CTBS4
56 35 34 41 22 21 11 0 A B Grades C D
Low-poverty schools
High-poverty schools
Source: Prospects (ABT Associates, 1993), in Prospects: Final Report on Student Outcomes, PES, DOE, 1997.
African American, Latino & Native American high school graduates are less likely to have been enrolled in a full college prep track
50
percent in college prep
46 39
25
22
21
Full College Prep track is defined as at least: 4 years of English, 3 years of math, 2 years of natural science, 2 years of social science and 2 years of foreign language Source: Jay P. Greene, Public High School Graduation and College Readiness Rates in the United States, 2012 curriculum. Manhattan Institute, September 2003. Table 8. 2001 high school graduates with college-prep THE EDUCATION TRUST
20
18
20 16
0 Pre-calculus/analysis Calculus
Source: MPR Research (2010). STEM Coursetaking Among High School Graduates 1990-2005. Available at http://www.mprinc.com/products/pdf/STEM_Coursetaking_Brief.pdf Data are for 2005. 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Source: MPR Research (2010). STEM Coursetaking Among High School Graduates 1990-2005. Available at http://www.mprinc.com/products/pdf/STEM_Coursetaking_Brief.pdf Data are for 2005 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST
0%
High poverty Low poverty High minority Low minority
Note: High Poverty school-50% or more of the students are eligible for free/reduced price lunch. Low-poverty school -15% or fewer of the students are eligible for free/reduced price lunch. High-minority school - 50% or more of the students are nonwhite. Low-minority school- 15% or fewer of the students are nonwhite.
*Teachers lacking a college major or minor in the field. Data for secondary-level core academic classes.
2012 THE EDUCATION Source: Richard M. Ingersoll, University of Pennsylvania. Original analysis for the Ed Trust of 1999-2000 Schools and Staffing Survey. TRUST
25% 20%
21%
11%
10%
0%
High poverty Low poverty
2012 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Monitoring Quality: An Indicators Report, December 2000.THE EDUCATION TRUST
Tennessee: High poverty/high minority schools have fewer of the most effective teachers and more least effective teachers
Note: High Poverty/High minority means at least 75% qualify for FRPL and at least 75% are minority.
Source: Tennessee Department of Education 2007. Tennessees Most Effective Teachers: Are they assigned to the schools that need them 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST most? http://tennessee.gov/education/nclb/doc/TeacherEffectiveness2007_03.pdf
Los Angeles: LOW-INCOME STUDENTS LESS LIKELY TO HAVE HIGH VALUE-ADDED TEACHERS
ELA
A low-income student is more than twice as likely to have a low value-added teacher for ELA A student from a relatively more affluent background is 62% more likely to get a high value-added ELA teacher.
MATH
In math, a student from a relatively more affluent background is 39% more likely to get a high valueadded math teacher. A lowincome student is 66% more likely to have a low valueadded teacher.
But if they are right, why are lowincome students and students of color performing so much higher in some schools
Four years ago, school was lowest performing in the district and among the bottom few in the state. District reconstitutedand restaffed.
Level IV
Source: Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama, Does the System succeed with All Kinds of Kids.
Level IV
60 58 56 54 52 50 48
School
53.5
54.7
District-White Students
State--White Students
Source: Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama, Does the System Succeed with All Kinds of Kids.
80%
78%
60%
50%
40%
Hewetson Nevada
26%
20%
7%
0%
2004
Source: Nevada Department of Education
2010
91%
95%
91%
95%
80%
69%
60%
63%
61%
40%
Nevada
20%
0%
All
Source: Nevada Department of Education
Latino
29%
80%
Percentage of Students
63%
60%
33%
40%
20%
28% 6% 4%
25%
14%
0%
Halle Hewetson
Source: Nevada Department of Education
Nevada
25% Low-Income
95%
96%
93%
79%
73% 67%
All Students
Low-Income Students
93%
96%
93%
93%
96%
90%
85%
80%
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
46%
51%
55%
57%
61%
64%
2005
Source: New York State Department of Education
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
96% 73%
98% 89%
99%
58%
57%
Elmont New York
Overall
African American
Latino
Source:
Very big differences at district level, tooeven in the performance of the same group of students.
Low-Income African American Students do Better in Some Districts (NAEP Reading 4th 2003)
210
200
190
180
District of Columbia Los Angeles Atlanta Chicago Cleveland National Public San Diego Charlotte Houston New York City Boston
* There is a 19 point gap between Poor African American 4th graders in the District of Columbia and Boston (roughly equivalent to 2 years worth of learning)
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Progress (NAEP), 2003 Trial Urban District Reading Assessment.
Low-Income African American Students do Better in Some Districts (NAEP Math 8th 2003)
255
245
235
225
Los Angeles District of Columbia Atlanta Chicago National Public San Diego Cleveland Boston Charlotte New York City Houston
* There is a 28 point gap between Poor African American 8th graders in Los Angeles and Houston (roughly equivalent to 3 years worth of learning)
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Progress (NAEP), 2003 Trial Urban District Reading Assessment.
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde/ EDUCATION TRUST 2012 THE
am De pshi law re Vir ar e gin Ne Haw ia Ma w ss Jer aii ac se h y Co uset l or t s a Flo do Ka r ida ns Ne Mar y as w M lan d Ne exic wY o Ala ork s Te ka x Wa Ariz as on sh in a Ge gton or g ia Iow a Na Okl Ohi tio aho o n Co al Pu ma nn bli e c Ke cticu n t No N tuck y ev rt Weh Ca ada st roli V i na Ala rgini ba a m Illin a In ois C a di an lifo a Pe Mis rnia So nns sou uth ylv ri C an Mi aroli ia nn na e Rh Or sota od ego e n Mi Islan ch d A ig Mi rkan an ss sa i Lo ssipps u Ne isian i T e br as a nn k Wi ess a sc ee on sin
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde/ EDUCATION TRUST 2012 THE
Mo De nta n la w a Fl o are ri Ne Virg da w J ini a ers ey Lo Ohi ui o Ma sian a r Mi vl and sso Ge uri or Te g ia Mi xas c Wy h iga om n Ma i ssa Kan ng Ne ch sas w H us So amp etts u th sh Da ire ko t Te Io wa nn Wi esse a sco e n In d sin ia A na Ne la sk Wa w Y a sh ork i ng Ha to n w No I ai i So rth C l lino i s a u Na th C rol in ti o aro a na lin l a Co Pub l ic lo r a Ne Id do w a Co Me ho nn xi c o e Ne cticu bra t Ar sk ka a ns as Mi Uta Pe nn n n e so h s t Ok ylvan a Rh l ah i a od om eI a Ala sla nd b Ar ama iz Ne ona Ca vad li fo a Or rn ia eg on
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde/ EDUCATION TRUST 2012 THE
Co l or a Or do eg Ala on s Te ka Vir xas g Ka inia No A nsas r th rizo Ca na De rolin la a So Ma war e u r Ma th C ylan aro d ss ac lin N e hu s a w e Ne Je tts w rs Wa M ex ey sh ico in Ge gton Mi or g nn i a es Flo ota r id Na tio Indi a na an l a Lo P ubl u ic Ne isian wY a or Ok Oh k l ah i o om a Iow Pe Kent a nn uc Co sylva ky nn nia ec Ne ticut Ark vada T e an s n n as Ca esse lifo e rn Illin ia M o Mi isso is ss Rh iss uri o i We de I ppi st slan V Wi irgin d sc ia Ala onsin b Mi ama c Ne higa br a n sk a
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde/ EDUCATION TRUST 2012 THE
Te xa Oh s Vir io gi Ala nia No Wy ska r th om Ca ing So Ma rolin uth r y a la Ne Caro nd w J lin er a Ma Flo sey ss ac r id hu a Mi setts ss Ka ouri n So Minn sas uth eso D t Wi ako a s ta De cons l aw i n Ind ar e Ge iana or g Illin ia Co o lor is a H a do wa Na Ne tiona Ida ii w H l P ho am ubl ps i c Pe New hire nn Yo Te sylva rk Wannes nia sh see in Ari gton zon a Ne Iow br a a Or ska Ne w M ego n Mi exico Ok chiga l ah n Ne oma Ark vad a Ca ansa lifo s rni Co Utaa R h nne od ctic h e u Ala Islan t ba d ma
Differences, too, in higher educationeven among institutions serving the same kinds of students.
College Completion
200
Number of Institutions
Source:
150
100
50
1,200 35,702
15.0%
7.4%
84.0%
69.9%
Indiana University
Purdue University University of Minnesota
1,120 28,768
1,135 31,008 1,165 28,654
16.0%
17.7% 19.9%
6.9%
6.8% 7.5%
71.9%
69.1% 63.4%
53.5%
52.3% 43.8%
91
University of Northern Iowa Montclair State Eastern Illinois University of Wisconsin Whitewater
1,045
7,014
29.8%
43.5%
92
Elizabeth City Delaware State University of Arkansas Pine Bluff Norfolk State Coppin State
N/A
2,800
72.6%
18.9%
2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST
93
Source:
60
Public
40
55 20 22 0 65
Private, Non-Profit
For-Profit
4-Year
Source: IPEDS First Look 2008-09, Table 5. Graduation rates at Title IV institutions, by race/ethnicity, level and control of institution, gender, and degree at the institution where the students started as fulltime, first-time students: United States, cohort year 2002.
Source:
Oakland, CA 510/465-6444