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Energy and Climate Change in Central Asia

Almaz Akhmetov Department of Risk Engineering Uchiyama Laboratory University of Tsukuba

Outline

Climate Change Warming

and

Global

Climate Change and its causes in Central Asia 3E concept development of sustainable

Energy use, the Environment and Economic Output interactions in Central Asian republics Concept of energy externalities. Energy cost with externalities:

Climate Change and Global Warming

Climate change and global warming refer to an increase in average global temperatures Natural events and human activities contribute to that increase. Primarily by increase in greenhouse gases (mainly, Carbon Dioxide CO2) A warming planet leads to a change in climate in various ways Annually, more than 60% of global industrial CO2 emissions originate in industrialized countries, where only about 20% of the worlds population lives

Climate Change and Global Warming

The Earth receives energy from the sun, then radiates much of this energy back toward space. However, certain gases in the atmosphere, called greenhouse gases, absorb some of the outgoing energy and trap it This "greenhouse effect" occurs naturally, but human activities have substantially increased the amount of greenhouse gases

Source:EPA, 2011

Climate Change and Global Warming

In the 1880-1935 period, the temperature anomaly was consistently negative Since 1980 the anomaly has been positive

Climate Change and Global Warming

Source:GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, accessed January 30, 2011

Climate Change and Global Warming

Source:NOAA Research, 2011

Climate Change Indicators

Climate Change in Central Asia

Source:Zoi environment network, 2009

Climate Change in Central Asia

Source:Zoi environment network, 2009

Climate Change in Central Asia

Source:Zoi environment network, 2009

Energy-related GHG emissions are the highest in the region

Electricity Fuel Mix Kazakhstan

Electricity Fuel Mix Kyrgyzstan

Electricity Fuel Mix Tajikistan

Electricity Fuel Mix Turkmenistan

Electricity Fuel Mix Uzbekistan

3E concept of sustainable development Environmental protection, energy security

and economic development are strongly affected each other Balancing these priorities is critical to achieve a sustainable development Task: Secure the energy supply for economic development without negative impact on the environment

E c o n o m i e s o f C

Energy, Environment and Economy in Central Asia

CO2 emission intensity of GDP

Energy intensity of GDP

Energy, Environment and Economy in Central Asia

Energy, Environment and Economy in Central Asia

Energy, Environment and Economy in Central Asia

Energy, Environment and Economy in Central Asia

Energy, Environment and Economy in Central Asia

3E Analysis methodology Regression analysis was used

for modeling and analyzing relationship between a dependent variable (CO2 emissions) and independent variables (Energy use, GDP) The empirical results of regression analysis will be the long-term relationship of the variables The results are interpreted growth terms in percentage in

3E Analysis results

KAZAKHSTAN: Energy use has greater impact on GHG emissions than economic output 1% increase in energy use increases GHG emissions by 1.2% when GDP does not change Energy conservation policies can reduce emissions without negative impact on economic development of Kazakhstan

3E Analysis results

KYRGYZSTAN: Energy use has greater impact on CO2 emissions than economic output 1% increase in energy use increases CO2 emissions by 1.24% when GDP does not change Energy conservation policies can reduce emissions without negative impact on economic development of Kyrgyzstan

3E Analysis results

TAJIKISTAN: Energy use has greater impact on CO2 emissions than economic output 1% increase in energy use increases CO2 emissions by 1.85% when GDP does not change Energy conservation policies can reduce emissions without negative impact on economic development of Tajikistan

3E Analysis results

TURKMENISTAN: Energy use has slightly bigger impact on CO2 emissions than economic output 1% increase in energy use increases CO2 emissions by 0.8% when GDP does not change 1% growth in GDP increases CO2 emissions by 0.32% when energy use does not change In-depth analysis required to fully understand the nature of the

3E Analysis results

UZBEKISTAN: Energy use has greater impact on CO2 emissions than economic output 1% increase in energy use increases CO2 emissions by 1.01% when GDP does not change Energy conservation policies can reduce emissions without negative impact on economic development of Uzbekistan

Energy externalities Conventional fossil fuel burning power plants


cause environmental problems (global warming, acidification, ozone layer depletion, etc.) Human beings are exposed to climate change directly and indirectly Human activities like energy conversion, transport, industry, or agriculture cause substantial environmental and human health damages, which vary widely depending on where the activity takes place and on the type of the activity The damages caused are for the most part not integrated into the pricing system

Energy externalities

The strategy tries to rebalance the social and environmental dimension with the purely economic one, accordingly leading to greater environmental sustainability To support this internalization, socioenvironmental damages must first be estimated and monetized There has been much progress in the analysis of environmental damage costs, particularly through the "ExternE" (External costs of Energy) European Research Network Historically, these damages caused by energy system are not included into the final cost of energy in Central Asia

9 c a n d i d a t e s i t e s

Energy cost with externalities: Case of wind power in Kazakhstan

Grid parity
0 0 0 0

0 0
h W k / T Z K

Before tax LCOE

Existing tariffs

0 .0 00

Grid parity with cobenefits

0 .0 00

0 .0 00
h W k / T Z K

00 .0

00 .0

New LCOE with co -benefit

Existing tariffs

Conclusions

Central Asia is affected by climate change Energy policies addressing energy conservation should not have effect on economic growth (apart from Turkmenistan?) Policies promoting renewable energy technologies are necessary Internalization of externalities provides the real cost of renewable energy Country-specific or region-specific