FORECASTING ,CALANDER PLANNING AND ORDER MANAGEMENT

Forecasting
Forecasting is an activity that basically deals with two questions What is likely to happen in the future What is happening now that will influence the future Process of predicting a future event Underlying basis of all business decisions Production Inventory Personnel Facilities

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 What is the purpose of developing the forecast? What, specifically, do we want to forecast (e.g., market demand, technology trends)? How important is the past in predicting the future? What factors could change the forecast? TREND FORECASTING SERVICES An integral part of fashion forecasting A very famous Trend Reporting Service Is PromoStyl.

Forecasting Time Horizons

Up to 1 year, generally less than 3 months Purchasing, job scheduling, workforce levels, job assignments, production levels Medium-range forecast 3 months to 3 years Sales and production planning, budgeting Long-range forecast
Short-range forecast

3+ years New product planning, facility location, research and development

Introduction Growth Maturity Decline

Introduction and growth require longer forecasts than maturity and decline. As product passes through life cycle, forecasts are useful in projecting Staffing levels Inventory levels Factory capacity

Key Reasons for Forecasting New Product?

Product launch decisions, eliminating an unprofitable product is an equally useful reason to forecast as introducing a successful product. Capacity planning Manufacturing decisions on raw materials procurement, manufacturing schedules, and finished goods inventory levels Logistics decisions on network design and physical distribution planning Marketing decisions on marketing budgets and promotion schedules Sales decisions on support materials and salespeople training Finance decisions on corporate budgets and financial expectations for the new product.

New Product Forecast Characteristic

Strategically important to the business Extremely uncertain future demand patterns Very unstable demand Little or no demand history Demand highly influenced by numerous macro (external) factors Sometimes done a few years before the product is even launched More suited for qualitative techniques Significant impact on the long run profitability of the product majority of the cases, it is performed by the Marketing In departmen

Commonly Deployed Techniques/Methods

Customer/market research 57% Jury of executive opinion 44% Sales force composite 39% Looks-like analysis 30% Trend line analysis 19% Moving average 15% Scenario analysis 14% Exponential smoothing 10% Experience curves 10% Delphi method 8% Linear Regression 7% Decision trees 5% Simulation 4% Others: Quant Methods 9

How forecasting is done?

Design team works with merchandiser to research and plan each new season Merchandisers have extensive knowledge of a companys target market use to interpret trends plan the merchandising calendar coordinate design activities for a particular division of a company link planning and creative decisions to production and marketing decisions Analyze the time between fashion origin and fashion acceptance Market study to know who are the current/potential customers and what factors influence their buying decisions and what all they want They compare style, price fit and quality Analysis of a new collection Sales records if properly interpreted indicates the customer interest

Sampling process
The process of sample department varies from context to context, and the development process covers a wide range of diverse products from new fibers, fiber blends, new yarns, fabric structures ,finishes and surface effects and all types of made up products such as knitwear, hosiery, cut and sewn garments, household products, technical and medical products. There are different phases of sampling The first phase covers the development of the initial concept or design idea through its approval by the customer and full review/risk analysis by the development and production teams. The second phase covers the process following acceptance of the first prototype sample and includes the functions of sourcing and ordering component, testing the product and carry out trails once the finalized sample specifications has been drawn up, the third and final phase commences. The third phase includes a range of activities that are carried out before large scale or bulk production capacity outside the home producer/developers wherever this is applicable.

Importance
To satisfy customers' expectations. An accurate forecast allows us to work with our suppliers to ensure adequate stock availability Collaborative working. Clear forecasts make it easier to see the road ahead and provide us with a strategic view of how we can work together on your future requirements Avoid any pitfalls. Making sure your forecast is accurate means you are more likely to meet your customer's needs without potentially expensive alternatives

Product launch decisions eliminating an unprofitable product is an equally useful reason to forecast as introducing a successful product. Capacity planning Manufacturing decisions on raw materials procurement, manufacturing schedules, and finished goods inventory levels Logistics decisions on network design and physical distribution planning

Marketing decisions on marketing budgets and promotion schedules

Sales decisions on support materials and salespeople training Finance decisions on corporate budgets and financial expectations for the new product

Why is forecasting so important to all of us?

Product forecasts actively support the delivery of excellent customer service and cost management by ensuring that the right mix of correctly skilled people, stores, budgets and other resources are available when required. Without clear and robust forecasts we cant guarantee we can meet the network needs of you and your customers. We can meet your needs. If you highlight any necessary contingencies, we can factor that in right at the start of the process We can satisfy you and your customers' expectations. An accurate forecast allows us to work with our suppliers to ensure adequate stock availability Collaborative working. Clear forecasts make it easier to see the road ahead and provide us with a strategic view of how we can work together on your future requirements Avoid any pitfalls. Making sure your forecast is accurate means you are more likely to meet your customer's needs without potentially expensive alternatives

The elements of doing business are constantly changing. Interest rates rise and fall, customer preferences change, suppliers go out of business, and the list goes on and on. As the factors that affect business change, the company forecasts must also change. In this time of rapid change, accurate and timely forecasts have become even more important. Recognizing this is the first step in becoming a successful organization.

Calendar Planning
It gives an overview of the major functions involved in the process and the detailed activities in the product development process but do not discuss the planning and scheduling of these activities. The calendar co ordinates activities, assigns responsibility and establishes the required start and stop dates for each major activity throughout the production process. Each task is allotted a set amount of time and must be completed in the time frame. The tasks are spread out over weeks giving targets so that the future processes will be able to continue without being delayed by earlier processes.