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Decision Making involves setting priorities and the AHP is the methodology for doing that. Our own personal priorities are the most important influence on our decisions. The AHP is the way to derive priorities in a meaningful scientific way to make decisions.
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Decision Making
We need to prioritize both tangible and intangible criteria: In most decisions, intangibles such as political factors and social factors take precedence over tangibles such as economic factors and technical factors It is not the precision of measurement on a particular factor that determines the validity of a decision, but the importance we attach to the factors involved. How do we assign importance to all the factors and synthesize this diverse information to make the best decision?
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OBJECTIVITY?
Bias in upbringing: objectivity is agreed upon subjectivity. We interpret and shape the world in our own image. We pass it along as fact. In the end much of it is obsoleted by the next generation.
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Comparison Matrix
Given: Three apples of different sizes.
Apple A
Apple B
Apple C
Apple B
Apple C
S2 / S1
S3 / S1
S2 / S2
S3 / S2
S2 / S3
S3 / S3
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Pairwise Comparisons
Size
Apple A
Size Comparison Apple A
Apple B
Apple B
Apple C
Apple C
Resulting Priority Eigenvector Relative Size of Apple
Apple A
6/10
Apple B
1/2
3/10
Apple C
1/6
1/3
1/10
When the judgments are consistent, as they are here, any normalized column gives the priorities.
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Consistency
In this example Apple B is 3 times larger than Apple C. We can obtain this value directly from the comparisons of Apple A with Apples B & C as 6/2 = 3. But if we were to use judgment we may have guessed it as 4. In that case we would have been inconsistent.
Now guessing it as 4 is not as bad as guessing it as 5 or more. The farther we are from the true value the more inconsistent we are. The AHP provides a theory for checking the inconsistency throughout the matrix and allowing a certain level of overall inconsistency but not more.
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3
5
7
9
1/9
1/5 1/2 1 1 2
Water
Coffee Wine Tea Beer Sodas Milk Water .177 .019 .042 .116 .190 .129 .327 with a consistency ratio of .022. The actual consumption (from statistical sources) is: .180 .010 .040 .120 .180 .140 .330
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A
1
B
9
C
9
D
6
E
4
F
5
G
1
1/9
1/9 1/6 4 1/5 1
1
1 2 4 3 4
1
1 3 3 5 9
1/2
1/3 1 2 1 6
1/4
1/3 1/2 1 1/3 3
1/3
1/5 1 3 1 5
1/4
1/9 1/6 1/3 1/5 1
F: Tasty Cake
G: Fish
The resulting derived scale and the actual values are shown below:
Steak Potatoes Apples Soybean W. Bread T. Cake Derived .345 .031 .030 .065 .124 .078 Actual .370 .040 .000 .070 .110 .090 (Derived scale has a consistency ratio of .028.) Fish .328 .320
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We then compare the elements in each group on the 19 scale get the priorities, then divide by the weight of the pivot in that group and multiply by its weight from the previous group. We can then combine all the groups measurements as in the following example comparing a very small cherry tomato with a very large watermelon. 15
.28 Lime
.65
.22 Honeydew
.70
.10 Honeydew
.60
This means that 34.14/.07 = 487.7 unripe cherry tomatoes are equal to the oblong watermelon
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Suppose the criteria are preferred in the order shown and the cars are preferred as shown for each criterion. Which car should be chosen? It is desirable to know the strengths of preferences for tradeoffs.
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Learning
Friends
School Life
Vocational Training
College Prep.
Music Classes
School A
School B
School C
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School Selection
L 1 1/4 F 4 1 SL 3 7 1 5 5 6 VT 1 3 1/5 1 1 3 CP 3 1/5 1/5 1 1 1/3 MC Weights 4 .32 1 1/6 1/3 3 1 .14 .03 .13 .24 .14
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Learning Friends School Life Vocational Trng. College Prep. Music Classes
Friends A B C A B C 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Priorities
Priorities
A A B C 1 1/9 1/7
B 9 1 5
College Prep. A B C
1 2 1 1/2 1 1/2 1 2 1
Music Classes
B 6 1 3
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.32 L
A
B
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Ideal Mode (Dividing each entry by the maximum value in its column)
.14 F 1 1 1 .03 SL .98 .20 1 .13 VT 1 .07 .22 .24 CP .50 .50 .50 .14 Composite NormalMC Impact of ized Schools 1 .65 .34 .13 .32 .73 .50 .39 .27
The Distributive mode is useful when the The Ideal mode is useful in choosing a best uniqueness of an alternative affects its rank. alternative regardless of how many other The number of copies of each alternative similar alternatives there are. also affects the share each receives in allocating a resource. In planning, the scenarios considered must be comprehensive and hence their priorities depend on how many there are. This mode is essential for ranking criteria and sub-criteria, and when there is dependence.
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Masters
(0.25).25/.59 =.43
.16/.48 = .33
1.000 0.752 0.641 0.580 0.564 0.517 0.467 0.466 0.435 0.397 0.368 0.354
0.153 0.115 0.098 0.089 0.086 0.079 0.071 0.071 0.066 0.061 0.056 0.054
The total score is the sum of the weighted scores of the ratings. The money for raises is allocated according to the normalized total score. In practice different jobs need different hierarchies.
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Decision Criteria:
Financial
Political
Envt Protection
Social Protection
Decision Makers:
Congress
Dept. of Interior
Courts
State
Lobbies
Factors:
Clout
Legal Position
Archeological Problems
Groups Affected:
Farmers
Recreationists
Power Users
Environmentalists
Objectives:
Irrigation
Flood Control
Flat Dam
White Dam
Cheap Power
Protect Environment
Alternatives:
Half-Full Dam
Full Dam 26
COSTS
$ Billion Tariffs make Chinese products more expensive (0.094) Retaliation (0.280) Being locked out of big infrastructure buying: power stations, airports (0.626)
RISKS
Long Term negative competition (0.683) Effect on human rights and other issues (0.200) Harder to justify China joining WTO (0.117)
Result:
YES
= 1.55
NO
= 3.16 27
Benefits/Costs*Risks
7 6 5 4 3 2 1
. . . . .. .. . . . . .. ... . . . . ..... . .. . .
18 30 42 54 66 78 90
. . .. .
No Yes
0 6
102 114 126 138 150 162 174 186 198 210
Experiments
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Benefits
Criteria
Time Saving
Filing
Quality of Document
Accuracy
Features
Training Required
Printer Speed
Alternatives
Focus
Costs
Criteria
Capital
Supplies
Service
Training
Alternatives
Lanier .54
Syntrex .28
Oyx .18 29
Best Alternative
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TWO EXERCISES
Do a simple decision like choosing a vacation place or a job or a city to move to or a restaurant and do it by paired comparisons throughout.
Do the same decision using the same weights for the criteria, but then set up standards for the criteria and rate the alternatives one at a time.
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