Attrition Prediction Model

Presented by: Amandeep Kaur(10pghr05) Aneesha Pramanik(10pghr08) Prakhar Ranjan(10pghr35) Ria Ghosh(10pghr42) Sudhakar Mishra(10pghr48)

Attrition
"A reduction in the number of employees

through retirement, resignation or death"

Reasons why an employee leaves the Organization

Monetary Factors

Lack of Good Working Conditions

No Flexible Work Schedules

Cont..
The Mismatch Between Job and Person Too Little Coaching and Feedback
Lack of support

Cont
Stress From Overwork and WorkLife Imbalance Loss of Trust and Confidence in Senior Leaders Less frequency in giving rewards.

Cont
Lack of understanding contribution to overall company objectives Lack of appreciation
Lack of challenges in job The job or workplace not up to employees expectations

Cont
Lack of respect
Very Few Supportive colleagues Higher Studies

Favoritism

EFFECT ON ORGANIZATION IF ITS EMPLOYEES LEAVE

Loss of productivity

Replacing qualified employees Poor retention creates a revolving door culture within the organization lowering morale and confidence. Cost of overtime or temporary help Recruiting costs Interviewing costs Time spent in orientation

Cost of attrition
People Cost Lost Sales Cost
Attrition cost

Recruitment Cost

New Hire Cost

Low Productivity cost

Training Cost

Attrition Spread Across Industry In Different Verticals

Industry Distribution
BFSI(25%) IT(20%) Manufacturing(13%) FMCG(10%) Pharma(8%) Telecom(5%) Retail(5%)

Gender Distribution
Male

Region Distribution
North(38%)

Role Distribution
Frontline(69%)

(82%)
Managerial(19%) South(32%) Leadership(1%)

Female (18%)
Central(30%) Supervisor(11%)

Objective

To develop a dynamic predictive model on attrition that will help in manpower planning and reducing employee turnover

Description
Employee attrition is becoming an increasingly serious issue in this firm based in the IT services sector. Understanding which factors cause employees to leave and which actions retain them is an important Business/HR Intelligence application. This project through the use of predictive modeling and various analytic methods aims to help predict for the organization:

The probability that an employee will leave over a given time period (for example, in the next year) and Quantifies the relationship of the input data to the probability of attrition. For e.g. - an employees job-action history, age, gender, the length of time in a position, salary history etc.

Significance for IBM - Daksh

Through this model, we hope to provide the organization valuable insights by looking at the predicted attrition rates and trends for employees with high-termination probability, which also helps pinpoint the reasons for termination.

If the organization knows why its employees are likely to leave, it can develop effective policies and strategies for employee retention.

It can identify and respond to a problem before it affects the bottom line.

It can also use turnover predictions to refine forecasts for resources that are necessary to meet future strategic goals.

Attrition Prediction Model

Given the model
Y= constant(x1+x2+x3+x4)+constant(z1+z2)+ B + C
Where Y = attrition rate

z1 = Background Check Failure X1= Higher Education z2 = V & A rejects x2 = Personal Reason B = Market Scenarios x3 = Health Problems C= Resource Pool x4 = Better Career Opportunities

Deliverables
To create a Predictive Model on Attrition using HRIS framework Application and implementation of the model followed by its evaluation of the performance of the predictive model Test of autocorrelation to know the seasonal pattern

Multiple regression based forecasting for prediction

Model fit to know the reliability and the reality

Through sensitivity analysis we can predict on various different scenarios

Methodology

Pilot testing for 2 departments

Analysis of factors responsible for attrition at IBM

Literature Review of various predictive attrition models

Devising an attrition model customized for IBM

Collection of historical data from the HRIS for testing the attrition model

HRIS at IBM
IBM Daksh uses the PeopleSoft program for HRIS This handles updates, encoding, reports generation on Headcount, Attrition & Retention rates
Extraction of relevant employee data from PeopleSoft using the following criteria

INDUSTRY EXAMPLES

Infosys Attrition Prediction

In 2009-10, attrition touched 13.4%, a level last seen in early 2008. Out of the 13.4% attrition rate, 3 percentage points is involuntary attrition. Infosys Analytics team has delivered many short term analytic projects like iRACE which is use to predict the Employee Attrition Rate

GENPACT