Critical Thinking and Decision Making

PMPG508 W11

Critical Thinking
The analytical, problem solving and decision making skills required for effective project management. It is thinking that occurs without bias or emotion, to reach a credible defensible, outcome or conclusion

Resistance to Change
We normally validate things against our existing base of knowledge. We tend to ignore or discount things that are contrary to our existing base of knowledge. Critical thinking requires the ability to suspend judgment and OBJECTIVELY evaluate the best explanation OR the willingness to change conclusions if the evidence has a higher probability of truth in the new alternatives

Decision Making and Critical Thinking

Decision making is the process of choosing among alternatives to achieve a goal. Critical thinking is a tool we use to choose among alternatives.

The Decision-Making Process

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Define the Problem Generate Alternatives Select the best solution Implement the solution Evaluate the outcomes Repeat the process if required Similar to PLAN-DO-CHECK-ACT in Quality Management

Defining the Problem

What is the real problem you are trying to solve? A task in the critical path is reported to be 5 days late. What is the problem? Can I break this down into smaller pieces? Can I work backward from now? Use a graph or chart to highlight issues Forget about it

Generate Alternatives
Always generate a list of possible solutions to the problem: 1. Brainstorming 2. Mind Mapping 3. Stakeholder analysis 4. Analogy

Evaluating Ideas
1. 2. 3. 4. Force Field Analysis SWOT Analysis Root Cause Analysis Risk Analysis

Force Field Analysis

Subtracts Adds

Solution

Problem

SWOT Analysis
A method for determining the STRENGTHS and WEAKNESSES of a solution and the OPPORTUNITIES and THREATS if implemented

Cause Analysis
Cause something that creates a change in something else. Cause and Effect relationships We search for them. Lots of gaps in our reasoning Normally several causes acting in a chain or together to produce the effect. Be careful about assumptions

Cause Analysis
Best question: If I eliminate this cause will the effect go away?

Think about a Summary Task that is 5 days late.

Risk Analysis
Use a risk analysis chart to evaluate the risks associated with solutions and mitigation opportunities available.

Select an Alternative
From the group of potential solutions, the next step is to select a solution or an alternative OR a combination of solutions to implement for the purpose of solving the problem. Always use criteria to rank the solutions. Some of the criteria may be weighted.

Implement the Selected Solution

Often the solution or fix for a problem is treated as a project in itself. The implementation process is considered in terms of the 9 knowledge areas. Think ahead about to manage the change process and follow through to adoption.

Check the Solution

Follow through the implementation of the solution and stay with the change to monitor the effectiveness and transition to operations.

Be prepared to change if the results require you to modify the solution.

Probe, Investigate, Challenge

Probe, ask questions about everything. Try to discover soft spots, missing information, biased opinions, superficial investigations, poor analogies and inaccurate or low relevance parametrics.

Questions
Clarity Could you show me what you mean? Could you give me an example?

Accuracy
How could we verify or test that? Can you show me how you came to that answer? Precision Could you be more specific? Could you provide more details? Depth What factors make this a difficult problem? How many difficulties are involved?

Relevance
How does that relate to the problem? How does that help us with that issue?

Questions
Fairness Am I being fair given the situation? Am I using facts to find the truth or to prove my point? Are my assumptions supported by evidence? Logicalness Do you conclusions follow from the evidence? Does all of this make sense to you? Significance Which of these facts is the most important? Is this the most important problem to consider? Breadth Could we look at this from another point of view Could we use another perspective?