Professional Documents
Culture Documents
16.75*6 = 100.5
Source: http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
Alberta
Right now need < 6 Bcf/day(42/week) to fill up before seasonal peak (Mid November) most recent weekly fill rate running at 67 (June 14) Source: http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
Coal prices dropping along with Natural Gas Nuclear, nat gas, coal are Big 3 of electricity production
Source: EIA
What is LNG
Liquefied Natural Gas natural gas chilled to -260 F, 600 times denser (60% energy density of diesel) CNG compressed natural gas, ~ 1% volume of nat gas (25% energy density of diesel) Costs ~ $5 for liquefaction, transport and gasification Liquefaction $5 billion / 1.2 Bcf/Day / 3-4 years construction (Cheniere/Sabine LA) Gasification $850 Million / 0.7 Bcf/Day / 2 years construction (India Petronet / East Coast India) Also water based (on older retrofitted LNG ships) for both liquefaction and gasification. Advantage over natural gas pipeline; can now transact with world, not just connecting from point A to B.
LNG ships expensive, 150+ $USD million, technical to build, small but
growing fleet to ?match? growing supply
Douglas Island, BC
Kitimat, BC Sabine, LA Hackberry, LA: Freeport, TX Lavaca Bay, TX Cove Point, MD Sabine, LA
2/3/2012
10/14/2011 9/11/2010 1/1/2012 2/1/2012
0.25
0.7 1.26 1.7 1.9 0.42
2013.75
2016 2016 2016.7 2017 2017 2017.3 2018
0.25
0.95 2.21 2.65 4.55 4.97 5.55 6.81
0.30%
1.14% 2.64% 3.17% 5.44% 5.94% 6.64% 8.15%
0.09
0.35 0.81 0.97 1.66 1.81 2.03 2.49
11/7/2011 9/11/2010
1 1.26
Lake Charles, LA
Warrenton, OR Corpus Christi, TX Coos Bay, OR Brownsville, TX Prince Rupert, BC Kitimat BC Elba, Savannah, GA
5/1/2011
2
1.26 1.8
2018
2018 2018.01 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020
8.81
10.07 11.87 13.07 15.87 17.55 18.55 19.05
10.54%
12.05% 14.20% 15.63% 18.98% 20.99% 22.19% 22.79%
3.22
3.68 4.33 4.77 5.79 6.41 6.77 6.95
3/6/2012 applied
10+ Bcf/day in 3 years compared to ~84 Bcf/day N.A. Production We should have clarity on majority of planned facilities within 12 months.
These are predictions, about the future. Timing and number of these LNG export facilities will change In the future as facilities break ground. Not all planned will go ahead Timing of when each facilities comes online But well know whether its going to be a massive rush of demand or more gradual
Geopolitics of Energy
Would you rather get your nat gas from Russia and Iran or Australia, US and Canada?
Energy security
Lithuania - June 2012 Proposed LNG import facility will supply 25% of nat gas, passes legislature 109-9. Currently Gazprom supplies 100% of nat gas. Estimated completion December 2014 Ukraine Jan 2009 Gazprom shuts off all natural gas to Ukraine Qatar LNG has to go through Strait of Hormuz and past Iran
http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/lithuania-klaipeda-lng-terminal http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/01/world/europe/01iht-gazprom.4.19039279.htm?_r=1
Japan
Fukushima earthquake shut down all their nuclear capacity, switching to LNG & everything else
Source: EIA Today in Energy, May 30, 2012 And FirstEnergy Capital Corp
This weekend Japan turned on first two of their nuclear power plants back on
10%
5%
70.0
0%
65.0
-5%
60.0
-10%
55.0
-15%
50.0
-20%
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
Oil sands Steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD), using steam (energy, aka nat gas) to move bitumen to surface. Cenovus (CVE) an example. Lower nat gas prices improve their input costs. Oil sands also have supply problem, getting supply out. (More oil pipelines under construction)
Source: http://www.albertaoilmagazine.com/2012/06/sagd-extraction-set-to-play-a-larger-role-in-oil-sands/
LNG shippers
Expensive ships 150+ $US million, technical to make, very profitable right now. 1 year charter rate 69,500/day on 12/31/10 Source: Fearnleys - shot up post Fukushima Most are fixed contract, long term, Teekays are almost on a NNN basis 359 ships in 2011 but will they oversupply (like bulk and tankers) ?
million tonnes
2010
2011
shipments
export cap
220.2
269.58
240.8
278
import cap tankers tanker order book shipments / tanker 53 ships of 2011 order book to be delivered in 2013 or later 360 20 0.61
Source: www.giignl.org/fileadmin/user_upload/pdf/A_PUBLIC_INFORMATION/Publications/GNL_2011.pdf
Economic winners After N.A. LNG comes online LNG Shippers LNG demand will keep shipping demand high Coal There are coal export facilities in planning stages on West Coast (Kinder Morgan in Oregon, Cherry Point WA, Ambre energy Oregon + Fuel switching from nat gas back to coal Nat gas & Nat gas service companies
Source: http://ambreenergy.com/projects/millennium
Energy needs
Source: http://www.gapminder.org/data/