ELECTRICITY GENERATION THROUGH NATURAL GAS

GROUP MEMEBERS: ALMAS SHAHID (5538) AVINASH ADVANI (6356)

Electricty generation through natural gas

PRESENTED BY AVINASH ADVANI

Acknowledgement
Thanks To Almighty Allah Who gave me Courage and Willpower to complete the task I have been given.

 Natural gas is believed by many to be the most important energy source for the future. Gas is main resource in pakistan 50% of the countrys energy is provided by natural gas. Energy is the most important sources for economic growth of a country. Unfortunately Pakistan has to face a major energy crisis in Natural gas, Power and Oil in next two to three years.

Diagram Evaluating pakistans Energy supply

TYPES OF NATURAL GAS

Shale Gas Methane Hydrates Biomass Liquefied Natural Gas Tight gas reservior Conventional Gas Non-Conventional Gas Compressed Natural Gas Liquefied Petroleum Gas Coalbed Methane(CBM)

Supply and Demand Gap

The demand of electric power could exceed supply by about 6000 MW at the end of 2010, which can mean the increase in load shedding in the country before entering in 2011.

The total power production of the country is about 19,500 MW and the total consumer demand is around 23,500 MW, which means that Pakistan is facing a shortfall of 4000 MW. At present electricity is generated by thermal, hydel and nuclear modes

Objectives of my Research
The main objective of my research is to find out either the consumption of air conditioners of pak is responsible for load shedding or growth in industrial sector in pak is responsible for load shedding. To find out the past trend of electricity consumption and present and future situation is also objective of my research

factors
We are dependent on oil as the prices of oil increases in Pakistan then it will affect the whole economy and prices will increases this is fact.

But when we talk about gas it is cheaper than oil.

1st people dont use the LPG in their cars so that as we growing now we have LPG to use in cars which is cost cheaper than petrol

Recommendation ( AVINASH)
Govt is trying to best level to produced the electricity thats why they start many projects but specially they are working on Thermal Power project and THAR COAL project once they completed the project then we pay the cost of electricity cheaper than now we are paying through natural gas and one of the biggest benefit is that the problem of shortage of electricity so we can fulfill the requirement.

Electricty generation through natural gas

PRESENTED BY ALMAS SHAHID

KEY PLAYERS OF ENERGY SECTOR

COST OF PRODUCTION OF GENERATION MIX.

CURRENTLY ENERGY SECTOR HAS A GENERATION MIX THAT IS 90% DEPENDENT ON OIL AND GAS FOR ENERGY GENERATION.
SECTORS GWH % RS/KWH

TOTAL IMPORT HYDEL HSD RFO GAS NUCLEA R

6247.17 20.77 991.37 119.99 2652.07 1954.96 435.8

100% 0.33% 15.87% 1.92% 42.45% 31.29% 6.98%

8.8373 9 0.2246

INCREASE IN FUEL PRICE IN INTERNATIONAL MARKET LEADS TO RISE IN COST OF GENERATION MIX
FUEL TYPE NEW PRICES RS./ LITRE 105.68 98.74 101.96 135.81 108.16 OLD PRICES RS./LITRE 97.66 93.29 96.4 126.87 103.46

19.26 16 4.3691 1.2145 PETROL LDO KEROSENE OIL HOBC HSD

CRISES IN ENERGY SECTOR

INTER-CORPORATE CIRCULAR DEBT RISING FUEL COST GOVT. SUBSIDIES WRONG GENERATION MIX CHOICE NON-RECOVERY OF BILLS ELECTRICITY THEFT FUEL SHORTAGE INEFFICIENCIES IN GENCOS DICREPENCY BETWEEN POWER GENERATION AND CONSUMER TARIFF INCREASING SUPPLY AND DEMAND GAP LINE/TRANSMISSION LOSSES FOR DISCOS

Pakistans Power sector

MODELS

Sectors Affected By Circular Debt Crises

International Oil Prices Rise

Govt. providing subsidies Raising General Sales Tax.. Printing more money.
Figure-2: Consumer Tariff vis-a-vis Cost of Power Generation

Consumer 10.5

Cost of Power Generation

9.5

8.5

7.5 Rs/Kw 6.5

5.5

4.5

3.5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Inter-corporate Circular Debt.

March 2009 September 2009 August 2011 February 2012 February 2012

Government issues PKR 80 Million Bail-out package Government issues PKR 82 Million Bail-out package IPPs issue notice to government for sovereign guarantee call

PEPCO receivables cross Rs. 400 Billion GoP plans to release Rs. 150 Billion

Energy Sector In Crises

CRIPPLED CASH FLOWS

TRANSMISSION AND DISPATCH LOSSES

THERMAL POWER GENERATION SCENARIO

90% Dependence on RFO Impacts

PRESENT ELECTRICITY GENERATION SCENARIO

Pakistans Power Demand-Supply Forecast

Facing The Challenges

GAS AND RFO ROLE IN FUEL MIX

Impact of Energy Crisis

Electricity shortage of more than 4500 MW and frequent power cuts translate to:

$ billion

Increasing dependence on expensive imported energy puts a severe constraint on ability to pay Import bill expected to increase to above USD 8 billion by 2020

Energy Import Bill for Power Generation

16

12

0 Current Future (2020)

Supply-Demand Gap
Power shortfall jumps to 4,800 megawatts (APRIL 12, 2012) The power crisis in the country has further deepened as on Wednesday shortfall again jumped to 4,800 MW during the last 24 hours. According to the daily load management report, the total generation was recorded as 10,326 MW against the demand of 15,126 MW during the said period. The hydel generation stood at 2792 MW, WAPDA thermal 1691 MW and IPPs 5,843. As much as 670 MW electricity was supplied to Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC), the report further said.

Pakistans Development Challenge

GDP per Capita Population Below Poverty Line (income less than USD 2 / day) _____________________ 60% Population Growth Rate

_____________ 980 USD

_______________________ 2%

.and needs energy to meet this challenge

Energy Supplies in Million Tons of Oil Equivalent
10,000.00 1,000.00 100.00 10.00 1.00 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00 1,000.00 10,000.00

GDP USD Billion

Wrong Fuel Choice

Nuclear 2%

2008-09

Nuclear 3%

2009-10

Hydel 30% Coal 0% HSD 1%

Gas 42% Coal 0% RFO 25%

Hydel 30%

Gas 29%

HSD 1%

RFO 37%

Due to lack of indigenous natural gas shortages, reliance on expensive imported RFO has increased and exacerbated Circular Debt problem

If Coal had been used instead of RFO to make up for indigenous natural gas shortage, it would have reduced energy import bill by USD 600 M and direct saving of USD 280 M to electricity consumers 50% reduction in use of RFO for power generation would reduce Pakistans energy import bill by USD 900 M and benefit electricity consumers by USD 400 M

THAR COAL POTENTIAL

Thar Desert contains the worlds 7th largest coal reserves:

175 Billion Ton = 50 Billion TOE = 2000 TCF

Total Thar Coal Reserve More than Saudi Arabia & Iranian Oil Reserves 68 times higher than Pakistans total gas reserves

1%

25%
Pakistans Power Generation Capacity in 2010 PAKISTAN

Thar Coal Reserve

Development of Block II alone would bring in investment of USD 12 Billion

Entire Thar Coal Reserves can be used to generate 100,000 MW of electricity for over 200 years
Thar

Importing Natural Gas

Proposed Pipelines Pakistans government is working on plans to build a pipeline that spans from Irans massive natural gas reserves to Indian markets across Pakistani territory. Iran has offered to cover 60 percent of the construction costs of the pipeline and Pakistani officials have stressed their ability to safeguard the pipeline. Pakistan could earn about $70 million annually in transit fees from the pipeline. A second natural gas import possibility that has been considered is an eventual link to the Dolphin Project in Qatar. This plan would supply natural gas from Qatar's North Dome field to Pakistan via a sub sea pipeline from Oman. Even though Pakistan has signed a preliminary agreement to eventually purchase natural gas from Qatar, it remains to be seen if further action on the project will be taken.

A third natural gas pipeline option that has been discussed is a line from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan. Pakistan faces various hurdles with this option, which include the security situation in Afghanistan and the price.

Natural Gas Production

Natural Gas Consumption

Steps Taken By Govt. Of Pakistan

Recommendations (ALMAS)
In addition I recommend that Pakistan focus on building its energy in the future by: Hydro-electricity This is because the cost of production of hydro electricity is cheapest course of energy. Further more in conditions of drought and floods building of dams help agricultural sector of Pakistan withstand extreme conditions. Indigenous coal This is because it will save us a great deal of foreign exchange by utilizing our countries own resources and not importing. Our generation mix will be less affected by rising fuel prices in the international oil market. Renewable Resources As it provides alternative source of energy and will help lower the cost of production of energy generation so that all sectors of Pakistan enjoy the benefits of energy and our economy prosper. Gas As it is cleaner and efficient to use and will not harm the plants and the environment as compared to the residual furnace oil. It is also cheaper than RFO Encouraging Foreign Investment By bringing in private and foreign investment in our energy sector, it will become self-sustainable and comes out of energy crises, It will also help build in confidence of the local investors. RFO To increase the range of the generation mix, not relying on any one of the factor of production ,to sustain and bear any shocks in the energy generation. Nuclear As it is most dangerous to handle so in last option it must be used, however should be used so that generation mix has a many ways of generation electricity.