Impact of Climate Change on Occupational Health and Safety: Are we prepared?

Dr. Homero Silva-Serrano Professor of Public Health Environment and Climate Change School of Public Health and Health Technology University of Technology, Jamaica

Vision 2030

Jamaica, the place of choice to live, raise families, work and do business

Vision
Labour Market and Productivity Sector Plan An efficient and harmonious labour market sustaining a prosperous society and economy, supported by a trained, educated, productive workforce that is attractive to quality job creating investments.

Attain Vision through Four Main Goals

An efficient and effective labour market; Higher levels of human and social capital formation and trust; Full and satisfying employment; and Level of national productivity that is internationally competitive

Are we Efficient? Are we Effective? Are we competitive?

Annual Average Labour Productivity Growth Rates

Barbados (BRD), Canada (CAN), Dominican Republic (DOM), Ireland (IRL), Malaysia (MYS), Mauritius (MUS) Singapore (SGP), Trinidad and Tobago (TTO) and United States (USA)

Annual Average Labour Productivity Growth Rates

Barbados (BRD), Canada (CAN), Dominican Republic (DOM), Ireland (IRL), Malaysia (MYS), Mauritius (MUS) Singapore (SGP), Trinidad and Tobago (TTO) and United States (USA)

Growth Real GDP Per Worker (International Prices $I) 2000-2003

In 2008, it was estimated that labour productivity declined further

Real GDP per worker per sector

Answer

No
We are not efficient We are not effective We are not internationally competitive

How we can solve this?

We need to invest in Human Capital

Investment in Human Capital

In the 60s Schultz produced this idea; Investing in Human Capital contributes up to 65% of a countrys economic growth. The posibility, the capability of human beings to contribute, to produce is called Human Capital; Health and Education are the two main ingredients for human capital development

Workers Health Determinants

Environmental Pollution Occupational Hazards

Workers Health

Life Styles

Health condition

From Homo sapiens to Homo sedens

Twenty Highest Female Obesity Prevalence and Twenty Lowest Female Obesity Prevalence Countries
Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 Most Obese Nauru Tonga Micronesia Cook Islands Samoa Niue Prevalence 81.9 80.8 78.5 72.5 72.4 70.1 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 Least Obese Ethiopia Eritrea Sri Lanka Bangladesh Nepal Cambodia Prevalence 0.03 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Kuwait
Barbados Palau Trinidad and Tobago Dominica Egypt United States Jamaica United Arab Emirates Jordan Nicaragua Mexico Malta Seychelles

66.6
62.7 61.9 60.7 60.0 59.4 54.8 52.6 52.4 52.2 51.2 51.1 50.6 50.4

7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Viet Nam
Dem Republic of the Congo Japan Rwanda Central African Republic Zambia Burkina Faso Uganda Afghanistan India Malawi Kenya Burundi Papua New Guinea

1.1
1.7 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2

Impacts of obesity
Major risk factors for a number of chronic diseases: diabetes, CVDs, musculoskeletal disorders and cancer. These conditions cause premature death and substantial disability, and Very high economic burden
Programmes related to PHC.

Health Condition
Chronic Diseases Obesity Mental Health Violence Sedentarism Junk Food Energy Consumption per capita Environmental Pollution

Two New Menaces

Climate Change Heat Islands

Workers Health Determinants

Climate Change
Heat Islands

Environmental Pollution

Workers Health

Occupational Hazards

Life Styles

Health condition

Climate Change Impacts

Higher temperatures Higher Relative Humidity
2.2% from 1973 to 2003

2 oC

Rising seas Increased risk of drought, fire and floods Stronger storms and increased storm damage Changing landscapes More heat-related illness and disease Economic losses Wildlife at risk
It is expected an increase of 1.5 to 2.8o Celsius increase in temperature by 2050 and 2080

Temperature Increase Heat Island

Increase in Temperature by Heat Island
5.8 a 8.0 oC, above present conditions an average of 6.9 oC

Total Temperature Increase

By 2050 1.5 + 6.9 = 8.4 oC By 2080 2.8 + 6.9 = 9.7 oC

Health Effects of Heat Stress

The health effects caused by heat stress include: heat cramps, heat exhaustion heat stroke. Heat stress can also increase the risk from other health and safety hazards.

How all of these impact on the Working Conditions?

Ways of thermal exchange by the human body

Kingston max Ave Temp.

Kingston Rel Hum At 1:00 PM

Humidex Chart

Preventive Measures
Humidex

Response
Provide 15 minutes relief per hour Provide adequate cool (1015 o C) water At least 1 cup (240 mL) of water every 20 minutes Workers with symptoms should seek medical attention

Efficiency

38 - 39

75% 50%

40 - 42 43 - 44 45 or over

Provide 30 minutes relief per hour in addition to the provisions listed previously If feasible provide 45 minutes relief per hour in addition to the provisions listed above If a 75% relief period is not feasible then stop work until Humidex is 42 or less for Humidex 1 or 46 or less for Humidex 2 Stop work until Humidex is 44 or less for Humidex 1 or 49 or less for Humidex 2

25% 0%

Who is going to be Impacted?

Labour Distribution By Sector

Goods Producing sector
Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing Mining Manufacturing Construction/Installation 216500 9700 71200 110900 7600 269700 79700 74100 317700 1700 1158800

Services Producing Sectors

Electricity/Gas/Water Wholesale/Retails/Hotels/Restaurants Services Trsnasport/Storage/Communication Finance/Insurance/Real Estate/Business Services Community/Social/Personal services Industry Not specified Total Emploted Labour Force

Informal Workforce
Self-employed House-hold unpaid labor (family members) Independent Services Workers
Informal Workers are often unprotected in the Regulatory Arena
40

Informal Workforce

41

Informal Workforce

42

Informal Workforce

43

Max Monthly Temperature and Humidity in Kingston

Jan Feb Mar Apr may Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec o Max Temp ( C) 29.8 29.6 29.8 30.3 30.8 31.2 31.7 31.9 31.7 31.3 31.1 30.5 Relative Humidity 61 62 64 60 66 65 65 68 68 65 65 64

Climate Change and Heath Island Impacts on Workers Environment First Approach

Jan Feb Mar Apr Humidex Normal 38 38 40 39 Max Temp+Climate Change 31.3 31.1 31.3 31.8 Humidex Climate Change 41 41 42 42 Max Temp Climate+Heat island 38.2 38 38.2 38.7 Humidex 54 55 55 >57

May 42 32.3 45 39.2 >57

Jun 42 32.7 45 39.6 >57

Jul 43 33.2 45 40.1 >57

Aug 45 33.4 48 40.3 >57

Sep 45 33.2 47 40.1 >57

Oct 42 32.8 45 39.7 >57

Nov Dec 42 41 32.6 32 45 43 39.5 38.9 >57 >57

Second Approach
How many hours would be lost per day?

Hourly Variation Relative Humidity and Temperature

Jan Feb

Hourly Variation Relative Humidity and Temperature

Mar

Apr

Hourly Variation Relative Humidity and Temperature

May Jun

Hourly Variation Relative Humidity and Temperature

Jul Aug

Hourly Variation Relative Humidity and Temperature

Sep Oct

Hourly Variation Relative Humidity and Temperature

Nov Dec

Scenario 1: Hours Lost due to Climate Change

10:00 Hrs 13:00 Hrs 16:00 Hrs % Rest Hrs Lost Jan 40 40 40 50 3.0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 39 39 42 43 44 44 45 44 45 43 41 40 41 42 44 45 45 46 45 44 43 40 39 40 42 43 44 43 45 45 45 43 42 25 50 50 75 100 100 100 100 100 75 50 1.5 3.0 3.0 4.5 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 4.5 3.0

Scenario 2: Hours Lost due to Climate Change + o Heat Island (3 C)

10:00 Hrs 13:00 Hrs 16:00 Hrs % Rest Hrs Lost 45 43 45 45 45 45 100 100 6 6 45 46 46 48 46 47 100 100 6 6 50 51 51 52 50 50 49 51 53 53 51 50 48 51 53 51 51 50 100 100 100 100 100 100 6 6 6 6 6 6 50 50 49 100 6 46 47 47 100 6

Number of Workers working Outdoors

% Number Working Working Outdoor Outdoor 70 151,550 30 2,910 20 14,240 70 77,630 246,330

Goods Producing sector Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing Mining Manufacturing Construction/Installation Total

216,500 9,700 71,200 110,900 408,300

Impact on Goods Producing Sector

Goods Producing sector Agriculture, Forestry, Construction, Fishing Mining Manufacturing Installation Total Jan 10,002,300 192,060 1,879,680 10,247,160 22,321,200 Feb 5,001,150 96,030 1,879,680 10,247,160 17,224,020 Mar 10,002,300 192,060 1,879,680 10,247,160 22,321,200 Apr 10,002,300 192,060 1,879,680 10,247,160 22,321,200 May 15,003,450 288,090 1,879,680 10,247,160 27,418,380 Jun 20,004,600 384,120 1,879,680 10,247,160 32,515,560 Jul 20,004,600 384,120 1,879,680 10,247,160 32,515,560 Aug 20,004,600 384,120 1,879,680 10,247,160 32,515,560 Sep 20,004,600 384,120 1,879,680 10,247,160 32,515,560 Oct 20,004,600 384,120 1,879,680 10,247,160 32,515,560 Nov 15,003,450 288,090 1,879,680 10,247,160 27,418,380 Dec 10,002,300 192,060 1,879,680 10,247,160 22,321,200 Total Hrs 175,040,250 3,361,050 22,556,160 122,965,920 323,923,380

Economic Impact
Minimum Goods Producing sector Wage Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing JMD 4,500.00 Mining JMD 15,000.00 Manufacturing JMD 13,946.00 Construction/Installation JMD 7,650.00

Total Hrs 175,040,250 3,361,050 22,556,160 122,965,920

EconomicLosses JMD 19,692,028,125.00 JMD 1,260,393,750.00 JMD 7,864,205,184.00 JMD 23,517,232,200.00

Is our response to climate change influenced by Others?

I believe yes.
We are not giving attention to the real priorities.

Climate Change Contribute but is not the main factor

Two to threes Celsius rise can lead to a three fold increase in dengue fever transmission If dengue cases are zero 0X3 = 0 600 DALYs = 600/2.9 millions = 1.8 hrs/capita/year Diarrhoeal diseases, sea food poisoning, and increases in dangerous pollutants Toxic algae bloom and increased cases of human shellfish and reeffish poisoning. Incidents of high temperature morbidity and mortality are projected to increase. Loss of food production hunger and malnutrition Asthma Cerebrovascular (stroke)

Perfect Health
100

Level of Health

Healthy from womb to tomb

50

A Healthy Death

Age, years

10

20

30

40

60

80

Healthy Years Lost (DALYS)

100

Level of Health

Non Healthy time

50

Healthy time

Age, years

10

20

30

40

60

80

Impact of Dengue in Labour Productivity

600 DALYs = 600/2.9 millions = 1.8 hrs/capita/year If 50% of workers get sick because of Dengue then 408,300 workers X 50% = 204,500 workers with Dengue 204,500 x 1.8 Hrs/Capita = 368,100 hrs , ~ 0.11% of total hours workers rest. Violence in terms of homicides represents 1578 or 70,000 DALYs

Overall recommendations for the Health Sector

Public education in the management of stress; Elimination of taxes on electric fans; Increased public education in the areas of sanitation and food poisoning; Relevant agencies prepared for handling increases in the incidents of food poisoning; Public health inspections for mosquitoes, including pest and rodent eradication; Sustainable design standards for housing in areas subjected to high rainfall and hurricane winds, for example, roofs can reduce heat absorption by painting them white or silver; windows need cross ventilation; and More attention to be paid to the design of settlements.

 Better water monitoring and management; Capacity building ODPEM to warn of hazards; Improve data gathering ability and technical support staff for monitoring and warning of airborne type diseases (Met Office); More collaboration between research institutions re pollution control; Validate regional models and calibrate statistical models using all available climate data ; Support research institutions involved in environmental health risks; Safe water storage drums; and More proactive actions in pressing the case for mitigation of greenhouse gases,.

Second Communication Priorities in Health

Objective
Achieve Efficiency, Effectiveness and international competitiveness through the Protection of workers health and safety from climate change impacts in Jamaica and the Caribbean

Specific objectives
Assess the working conditions of workers in different sectors in Jamaica related to humidity and temperature among others; Assess medical conditions of workers in different sectors Estimate future working conditions of workers using climate change predictions Prepare a Humidex Chart for the Caribbean Prepare guidelines for the protection of workers health and safety Promote the use of Humidex Chart

Will Climate Change Affect Workers Environment? Will Climate Affect Vision 2030 Goals?

Are we prepared?

Thanks for Not Snoring

hsilva10@hotmail.com