binomial, Poison and normal probability distributions

RIGOBERT NGELEJA& FRANK VENANCE

The Binomial Probability Distribution

A binomial experiment is one that possesses the following properties: 1.The experiment consists of n repeated trials; 2.Each trial results in an outcome that may be classified as a success or a failure (hence the name, binomial); 3.The probability of a success, denoted by p, remains constant from trial to trial and repeated trials are independent.

The number of successes X in n trials of a binomial experiment is called a binomial random variable.

The probability distribution of the random variable X is called a binomial distribution, and is given by the formula

P(X) = Cnxpxqnx
combinations) in which r objects can be selected from a set of n objects,

where n = the number of trials x = 0, 1, 2, ... n p = the probability of success in a single trial q = the probability of failure in a single trial (i.e. q = 1 p) Cnx is a combination
P(X) gives the probability of successes in n binomial trials.

Mean and Variance of Binomial Distribution

If p is the probability of success and q is the probability of failure in a binomial trial, then the expected number of successes in n trials (i.e. the mean value of the binomial distribution) is

E(X) = = np
The variance of the binomial distribution is V(X) = 2 = npq
Note: In a binomial distribution, only 2 parameters, namely n and p, are needed to determine the probability.

EXAMPLE 1
A die is tossed 3 times. What is the probability of (a) No fives turning up? (b) 1 five? (c) 3 fives? This is a binomial distribution because there are only 2 possible outcomes (we get a 5 or we don't). Now, n = 3 for each part. Let X = number of fives appearing.

(a) Here, x = 0.

(b) Here, x = 1.

(c) Here, x = 3.

EXAMPLE 2 Hospital records show that of patients suffering from a certain disease, 75% die of it. What is the probability that of 6 randomly selected patients, 4 will recover?
This is a binomial distribution because there are only 2 outcomes (the patient dies, or does not). Let X = number who recover. Here, n = 6 and x = 4. Let p = 0.25 (success - i.e. they live), q = 0.75 (failure, i.e. they die). The probability that 4 will recover:

Normal Probability Distributions

Properties of a Normal Distribution 1.The normal curve is symmetrical about the mean ; 2.The mean is at the middle and divides the area into halves; 3.The total area under the curve is equal to 1; It is completely determined by its mean and standard deviation (or variance 2)

Note: In a normal distribution, only 2 parameters are needed, namely and 2. The Standard Normal Distribution It makes life a lot easier for us if we standardize our normal curve, with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 1 unit. If we have the standardized situation of = 0 and = 1, then we have:

Standard Normal Curve = 0, = 1

If we have mean and standard deviation , then Since all the values of X falling between x1 and x2 have corresponding Z values between z1 and z2, it means: The area under the X curve between X = x1 and X = x2 equals: The area under the Z curve between Z = z1 and Z = z2. Hence, we have the following equivalent probabilities: P(x1 < X < x2) = P(z1 < Z < z2)

Calculating Normal Probabilities

P(45 < X < 60) ?
mean of 50 minutes and a standard deviation of 10 minutes

8.13

Percentages of the Area Under the Standard Normal Curve A graph of this standardized (mean 0 and variance 1) normal curve is shown.

In this graph, we have indicated the areas between the regions as follows: -1 Z 1= 68.27% -2 Z 2= 95.45% -3 Z 3 =99.73%

EXAMPLE 1 Find the area under the standard normal curve for the following, using the z-table or calculator.
(a) between z = 0 and z = 0.78 (b) between z = -0.56 and z = 0 (c) between z = -0.43 and z = 0.78 (d) between z = 0.44 and z = 1.50 (e) to the right of z = -1.33.

The Poisson Probability Distribution

The Poisson Distribution was developed by the French mathematician Simeon Denis Poisson in 1837. The Poisson random variable satisfies the following conditions: 1.The number of successes in two disjoint time intervals is independent. 2.The probability of a success during a small time interval is proportional to the entire length of the time interval.

The probability distribution of a Poisson random variable X representing the number of successes occurring in a given time interval or a specified region of space is given by the formula:

where x = 0, 1, 2, 3... e = 2.71828 (but use your calculator's e button) = mean number of successes in the given time interval or region of space

Mean and Variance of Poisson Distribution If is the average number of successes occurring in a given time interval or region in the Poisson distribution, then the mean and the variance of the Poisson distribution are both equal to . E(X) = and V(X) = 2 = EXAMPLE 1 Vehicles pass through a junction on a busy road at an average rate of 300 per hour. a.Find the probability that none passes in a given minute. b.What is the expected number passing in two minutes? c.Find the probability that this expected number actually pass through in a given two-minute period.

The average number of cars per minute is:

(a)

(b) Expected number each 2 minutes = E(X) = 5 2 = 10

(c) Now, with = 10, we have:


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